WARNING:  Buying World of Warcraft (WoW) accounts on eBay or via Paypal is very dangerous.  This is the first in a series of articles on how to identify these scams and how to protect yourself. 

I previously posted that eBay should have a flag option like craigslist.  This would help.  So, in the interest of explaining how messed up this stuff is, I will show the anatomy of a really bad eBay scam.  (Well really, it is more like a scammer.)   The proliferation of fraud related to virtual items is a significant problem.  It’s perpetuated by three things:

• eBay’s stance on virtual items.  Which, to the best of my understanding is:  they don’t get any protection because they aren’t real.  I find to be really silly given that eBay is one of the biggest web companies and virtual items are a big, high value market.
• Paypal shares eBay’s position on virtual items.  I guess this isn’t surprising since eBay owns them.
• The game companies (particularly Bllizzard) perpetuate fraud by not allowing secure character and gold transfers.  Look, I know some of these companies are purists, but the reality is that people are going to buy/sell these accounts.  They can let their customers (people that want to play their games enough to pay) get ripped off or they can facilitate these transfers and make money.  They are in denial about reality.

OK, so now you know why these scams exist.  Let me show you one.

On eBay right now, I can do a search on “curulet2007” (you have to do an advanced search with the box checked for Search title and description) and get these results:

• WoW World of Warcraft 8/9 Tier 3 Warrior + Thunderfury
• 10 x Nintendo Wii Consoles – Special Lot .BRAND NEW.
• WOW World of Warcraft 7/9 Tier 3 Priest – Full Atiesh
• World of Warcraft WoW 60 Rogue 8/9 tier3 Kingsfall r14
• World of Warcraft WoW 60 Hunter 8/9 Tier 3 – 70 Epics –

Now, you’ll see that there for world of warcraft accounts there.  Each has 7/9 or 8/9 tier 3 (which is very hard to get) and one of the best possible weapons for it’s class.   It would be impossible for one person to have created all these characters.  These accounts should be going for $1000-$1500 (if they were real).  Except in this case they are all the same guy using several  different eBay accounts.  You can look at each one, he uses the following ids (in the same order as the auctions above):

• scutumboy (1)
• lisar915 (34)
• lisar915 (34)
• powerjunkie68 (52)
• powerjunkie68 (52)

Only scutumboy and powerjunkie68 have any feedback that still links to an auction.  Scutumboy actually looks vaguely real since it has (1) feedback and that feedback is selling a $500 remote controlled car set.  Powerjunkie68 bought a “fake doctor’s excuse” $9.99.

This is another important way to detect fraud.  (The first being a seller listing several items that he can’t possibly have.)  I look at feedback and click the links.  If the person has just bought a bunch of < $10 items that look useless they are probably just racheting up their feedback for the big score.  It looks like this guy probably rotates accounts at a frequency that makes it difficult to spot what he has been doing.

Virtual goods are also difficult in feedback, because in some cases the seller can “steal them back”.  In the case of World of Warcraft accounts this is thanks to Blizzard’s policy since they do not recoginize account changes the original owner can just call up, request a new password, and boom the account is their’s again.  At that point you have limited recourse.  You can’t even go give the seller negative feedback if you already gave them positive feedback.  So they can just sell it again!

BTW, the same thing pretty much happens if they give you nothing – you don’t have a lot of recourse.  Although you can leave them negative feedback in this case, since they never gave you anything.

In some cases you can do a chargeback on your credit card which forces Paypal to refund your money.  This doesn’t work if your Paypal drafts from your bank.

Anyway, back to the fraud.  In every listing he says contact curulet2007@yahoo.com before bidding.  This is usually a bad sign.  If they don’t want to be contacted through the eBay channels, that is usually a big red flag.

There is one more thing that sets off the fraud alert in the case described above.  The 10x Wiis listing.  I went and looked at that as I was looking at all his listings (when spening money on virtual goods it is important to do as much research on the seller as possible).  So when selling Wiis and PS3s it is common (it used to be required, but I’m ont sure if it still is) to show a photo with your receipts and a written note with your eBay ID – to prove they were yours.  Well, the 10x Wiis here are listed under the “lisar915” eBay ID and the picture has the ID “alexmichalas” in it.  Woops!  Run away.   BTW, a quick search for ebay member “alexmichalas” reveals he has been selling Wiis (in Europe) and has the exact picture in all his listings… with, shock, no mention of “curulet2007”.

So, here we have one scammer spotted and identified.  Of course, I can’t tell eBay about it or flag it.  So what should I do?

1. Write this blog post.
2. Stop people from getting scammed.

So I attempted to contact kotura (331) who has a current bid of $1,425 on the 8/9 T3 Warrior (first listing).  It’s the only one with meaningful bids.  BUT, get this, I can’t contact this person because I have had a transaction with them – I might be trying to rip them off.  Oh, the irony!

So I tried to keep this buyer from getting ripped off.  It almost makes me want to start a “verified” eBay listing or something.  Or eBayFraudAlert.com.  But really, eBay should be doing this.

We are two weeks away from TBC, the first expansion to World of Warcraft.  It’s a big deal, largely because, well quite literally, it will change the game.

The biggest thing:  the maximum level moves from 60 to 70.  Why is this so important:

1. People have been sitting at level 60 for about two years.  This means that level hasn’t been that important as a differentiator for a long, long time.  So since everyone has been stuck at 60 they’ve differentiated across different axes:
• Equipment:  There are currently 3 tiers of equipment that are dramatically different.  Even the people with tier 1 are dramatically more “powerful” than those in “tier .5” or “tier 0″…   And there are very few with full sets of tier 3.  But basically all this stuff will be obsolete withing a few months of the expansion release (since people will be 70 and the level 70 stuff is better than even tier 3).
• PVP:  This has been fun.  The rewards, however, are all equipment.  So all the PVP people have been doing was a fun game, but all the “output” again gets washed away.  Start over when you get to 70. 
2. People haven’t “levelled up” in a long time.  Getting a PVP rank used to be comparable, but they took that out in Decemeber and it was crazy hard (like 80 hours a week) past a certain level.  So the feeling of advancing a level will be back, at least for a month or two, which will be fun and energize people.
3. New areas — there have been a lot of patches with new areas in the two and half years of WoW, but they were almost exclusively dungeons and battlegrounds.  There will be new dungeons and battlegrounds in the expansion too.  But, more importantly, there will be a giant new land mass.  This will bring back the joy of discovery and exploration.  I think it will be a lot of fun.
4. New races — this will appeal to the hardcore folks who want to try something new.  It might also be good for new people who now have some vague advantage to entering the game now (they get to be one of the new races).

So I think there might be a resurgence of playing, but I’m not sure.  I have not been to Outland (the big new area) in TBC, although I have played the beta.  I messed around as a dranei and a blood elf (the new races) and it was pretty fun.  But I couldn’t bring myself to level up to 70 only to have it wiped when the expansion is released, so I haven’t seen the high end stuff.  I’m looking forward to checking it out.

I’ve noticed now at dinner, having drinks, etc., that if someone checks their Blackberry (or other smartphone) everyone else is almost compelled to do so as well.  It’s like a yawn – once one person yawns everyone else almost can’t resist yawning themselves.   

Burning Crusade Relase is 01/16/07 — just under two weeks away.  People are running out of time to sell their major T3 accounts before they drop in value a lot. 

Accounts for Sale on eBay:  593 (new system for counting) 

Under the old system:  284 (up 74)

High Price:  $1,400 (6/9 T3 R14 Hunter)  [This account is not worth nearly that, the seller is smoking crack.]  This is down $100 and prices are trending down at the high end fast.

Highest Price w/Bid:  $1,000 (6/9 T3 Warrior w/ 3 Naxx Weapons)… there is also a rogue at $960 with 6/9 T3 and Naxx daggers.  Last week the highest price with a bid was $760, so it looks like people are buying. 

Accounts with Kel’Thuzad weapons:  1 (down 1)  – there is also a priest with Atiesh, Greatstaff of the Guardian which one could argue is a KT weapon.

Accounts with Legendary items:  37 (Up 6)  (This number is somewhat inflated because it counts splinters of Atiesh and a lot of people have those – not too useful though unless you’re in a guild that can kill KT.) Gold (1000g Tichondrius): $258.50-$313.21 (up $70) (1000g Frostmane) $307.68-372.50 (up $170)

(Gold prices from IGE, EZgaming.   Alliance.)  Starting next week I will add WGSeller and MOGS to the list.  For comparison, WGSeller is $299.7 on Tich and has no gold on Frostmane, while MOGS is way underpriced on Frostmane at $129.77 and the same on Tich at $299.77.  (If they look identical next week, I’ll use both.  Also a previous commentor said IGE owned EZgaming – which may be true, but thei prices are a lot different.)

COMMENTARY

Gold is up dramatically.  I’m not sure why, could be a few reasons:

• People are stocking up for TBC.
• People are agressively buying stuff (in prep for TBC or PVP?)
• Blizzard is doing a better job of enforcement.
• Gold is harder to farm.  (I find this unlikely.)

But in the last two weeks gold is up well over $100/1000g.  That’s a lot of appreciation.

Accounts seem to be selling in the $600-$900 range for well equpped (6/9 T3) accounts ahead of TBC.  We’ll see what happens in two weeks.

If you want to sell your account:  DO IT NOW!  There will ikely be a dead time starting a few days before TBC and lasting until people start selling well equipped level 70s.  I could be wrong – maybe a lot of new people will sign-up with TBC and want 60s out of the gate.  But my bet is that anyone buying an account for TBC is going to want to have it transferred at least a few days before the expansion hits so they can start playing immediately.  And right now transfers are at TWO DAYS.

From CNN.com:  Pat Robertson: God told me of ‘mass killing’ in 2007

Some fun quotes:

Evangelical broadcaster Pat Robertson said Tuesday that God has told him that a terrorist attack on the United States would cause a “mass killing” late in 2007.

“The Lord didn’t say nuclear. But I do believe it will be something like that.”

It’s good to know that he can fill in the blanks for the “Lord”.   Anyway, the article also discusses his previous predictions, some of which have come true.  However, since most of them are vague it hardly matters.  Anyway, my favorite part is when he says:

“I have a relatively good track record,” he said. “Sometimes I miss.”

So, excuse me Mr. Robertson, but your God is supposed to be omniscient.  So if you “miss” at least one of the following must be true:

1. Your God is lying to you.
2. Your God does not exist.
3. You are making this all up.
4. Your God is not omniscient or makes mistakes.

I’m going to steer clear on 4.  I believe it is either 2 or 3 (or both).  I’m open to being convinced on option 1.  If I were God I don’t think I’d be spending much time chatting with Mr. Robertson.  But that’s just me.

So, uhm, I predict the following for 2007:

• The housing bust will continue.  (So, to be clear, I’m right as long as it doesn’t dramatically improve.)
• There will be a terrorist event against the U.S.  (I hope I’m wrong on this one, but statistically it’s pretty low risk.  However, if there isn’t a major “terrorist attack” I’ll claim that attacks on U.S. troops on Iraq counts.)
• The U.S. will lose more troops in Iraq.   (Free…)
• The U.S. won’t pull out of Iraq in 2007.   (This is the low risk bet too.  See, even if they pull out some, I’ll still be right.)
• The stock market will make a major swing.  (LOL, now I’m being dumb.)
• Amazon will have its BEST CHRISTMAS SEASON EVER.  ( 😉 read this post.)

Ok, enough of this.  Predicting the future makes me ill…. and makes me feel kind of slimy.

Anyway, it’s morons like this that give religions a bad name.  I do, however, love the picture CNN picked for this article.  ROFL.  Nice sleazy smile and all.  Although it makes me sad that this got above the fold coverage on CNN.

Oh and in honor of this, and I’m sure the plethora of articles I will now blog about, I have created a new category:  Religious Nuts.

Maybe I’ve been living under a rock or something, but this is the first time I’ve seen this:

Hilarious!  Got to love it when genres (or perhaps age ranges) collide. Grand Theft Auto meets Mario Brothers! Brilliant! Robot Chicken is funny.

I’m sitting here looking at an auction that ends in 58 minutes.  It’s current bid is $353.18 (it is listed in pounds, hence the weird number).  So the lister has 100% positive feedback (29) and is in the UK.

However, I know this listing is a fraud.  It’s a World of Warcraft character (you’ll note that I’ve been tracking character sales in a weekly entry), so it is by definition unique.  This particular one was previously listed (the listing went down today) and this new listing is identical, including the picture.  It went up, with a shorter auction, while the other one was still there.  So I know one of them is a fraud and I’m assuming it is the more recently listed one (this one). 

This happens a lot, especially on virtual items.  If I could flag it I could save someone the pain of getting ripped off for $350-$400.  And since it is a virutal item it will be a royal pain to get it back since eBay and Paypal’s point of view on virtual items SUCKS.  That’s another blog entry though.

So if you are thinking of buying a World of Warcraft account on eBay (or anywhere else) be very careful. 

Another tidbit from CNN/Fortune/Business 2.0:  Jeff Bezos is NOT Crazy Eddie  – This article is buried inside CNN/Money as part of “The Browser” (which is pretty cool).

Anyway, it’s pretty funny because this article: Amazon.com has ‘best ever’ sales is on the CNN.com home page.  It’s ironic because this article appears to be the exact regurgitation of the press release that the Browser entry makes fun of.

Congrats to Amazon though, I love them.  I find it interesting that J.C. Penny and Sears are taking online market share from them, but I expect that is just a side effect of the mainstreaming of e-commerce.

This is the apology thread from Fortune / Business 2.0:  Seagate CEO apologizes for porn remark

It’s unfortunate that his PR flacks got a hold of this.  If you can’t make a joking reference to porn (which has been a clear driver of most new technologies including VCRs, DVDs, the Web, etc.) as a business driver for storage then what  the hell?  I liked the interview a lot because it was pretty candid and open.  After reading it I had a lot of respect for Bill Watkins.  That respect isn’t diminished by this apology, but it just further illustrates that the PR (and I’ll point the finger at the other evil R – HR) has to package and many everything.

People should be real.  Passion is good.  Political correctness is the death of creativity.

This is pretty cool:  Scientists launch ‘planet hunter’

Ironically it launched from Kazakstan.  I find that funny given all the Borat noise.  LOL.  Anyway the satellite is called COROT and it’s from a French-led consortium.  (I’m biting my tongue on French jokes.) 

Anyway, this is a area that I find very interesting.  The discovery of other planets, especially those that might exist in a Habitable Zone or, more importantly, an Animal Habitable Zone, is near and dear to my heart.  In 2008 NASA plans to launch a satellite telescope that can detect Earth-sized planets. 

Quote:

It will measure the light emitted by a star and detect the drop in brightness caused when a planet passes in front of it.

Like the larger planets found so far, however, these new ones will have to be orbiting close to their star.

“Such planets would represent a new, as yet undiscovered, class of world that astronomers believe exists. With COROT, astronomers expect to find between 10-40 of them, together with tens of new gas giants,” ESA said.

ESA is the European Space Agency.

More on COROT from ESA.

If anyone knows what COROT stands for, please let me know.