Andrew Busey: My Musings

In World of Warcraft’s expansion The Burning Crusade you can buy flying mounts.  They are really cool and are also a requirement for many level 70 activities.  So if you play, you’ll eventually have to buy one.  There are two types:

• Normal:  60% faster than walking and they can fly.
• Epic:  280% faster and they fly really fast.

The epics are really cool.  I highly recommend them.  So here is what they cost:

Normal:

• Riding skill training to 225:  800g
• Basic flying mount:  100g
• Total price:  900g

Epic:

• Riding skill training to 225:  800g
• Riding skill training to 300:  5,000g  (requires that your riding already be 225)
• Basic epic flying mount:  200g
• Total cost:  6,000g (assuming you didn’t also buy the basic mount in the meantime for an additional 100g)

So for an epic flying mount (you’ll definitely want one) you’re in for 6,000g.  What is that in real money?  Well, I’m glad you asked.  So I looked it up today and found gold (on my server) going for $188/1000g - down substantially from a week ago when it was about $300/1000g.

At the new, lower gold price of $188 per 1000g the epic mount would cost $1,128. (Over a thousand dollars of real money!)

So your glorious new flying vehicle (which Blizzard declares that it own) is almost as expensive as a real vehicle.

Oh and if you want to know how much it costs in time, it is even worse.  My guess is that you can earn 1000g in 20-40 hours depending on how hard you try.  So figuring 30, it will take you 180 hours of gold farming (what fun) to get enough for your epic mount.  If you make over $30/hr in reality land that means the epic mount IS costing as much as a real vehicle at $5,000+.  Of course the fallacy of this argument is that you choose to spend your time here, so what is your leisure time worth?  I don’t know but this seems like it’s starting to get pretty expensive.

nVidia released a new driver today that fixed the problem with the Apple 30″ LCD.  So now that Vista is running 2560×1600 I can actually use it.  I’ve installed Office 2007 and will start experimenting with that soon.

The key thing:  World of Warcraft seems to be running great.  LOL. 

Anyway, so far I’ve just been configuring things to my liking so I don’t have much to report.  My biggest issues now are finding my old iTunes playlists and stupid crap like that.  I did a fresh install but I guess that still saves a copy of all your crap, which is kind of convenient. 

Anyway the UI is nice and things seem to be running smoothly now, another update will soon follow.

A quick warning.  On Kil’Jaeden (where I play) there is a new scan going on and I expect it is probably happening on other servers as well.

You get an ingame mail from the Argent Dawn saying something like:

Thank you for all your hard work killing demons for the Argent Dawn, please accept this gift as a small token of our appreciation.

The mail will claim to be from some Argent Dawn figure and will have an attached package - typically one of the various gift wrapped items (like the reward from those grudge-covered objects in Gnomeragon). 

The scam is that it is COD and it’s easy to fall for because it looks like you are getting a present and 100g/300g (whatever they send).  But really you are getting a present for 100g/300g COD gold.  So when you click you lose the gold.  Boom!

I got one of these for 300g and fortunately didn’t fall for it.  I’ve seen several people sending warnings about the scam in general chat.  So be careful, it would suck to have some random scam yank hundreds of gold from you.

/Alert

Article from News.com:  eBay bans auctions of virtual goods

Well this makes my weekly tracking report on account sales in World of Warcrat difficult to continue.  I was waiting to restart it once things stablizied, since the release of The Burning Crusade (the expansion) it has been unclear what the right metrics were.  There have been a few level 70 characters up on eBay, but not many.  So given this announcement I’ll delay the report.  I’ll start tracking gold again this week. 

This is unfortunate.  I, for one, think that being able to sell your account is a good thing.  It you put thousands of hours (like most level 70s) into this, you should be able to sell what you’ve accomplished.  It’s a shame a few purists think you should just have to throw all that away. 

Games are a big hobby for many people, most hobbies involve collection/building and generate some value (although are not often wildly profitable).  MMORPGs are no different - as you play you collect stuff for your characted and you build it up.  This has some value - no where near the time you put into it - and you should be able to extract that value if you leave.  It is unfortunate that some game companies do not take this broader view.

Please also read The Prince, The Pauper, and The Purist, if you are interested in this topic.

So far so good.  I braved the Texas Blizzard of 2007 (lol) to get my copy at midnight Monday (or Tuesday depending).  BTW, a Texas Blizzard basically means freezing rain or the possibility of freezing rain.  In this case there was some freezing and it even snowed a little on Tuesday.  OMG! 

So anyway, during the freezing craziness of this last week I got some time to play.  I am now level 63.  Exciting!  I like the new expansion.  Advancing again is fun.  Exploring new areas again is fun.  Lots of cool new monsters and landscapes. 

More to come.

The Burning Crusade is out!  (Hence the delay, more on that in another post.)

Accounts for Sale:  287 (down 631!)

High Price: $1,300 (7/9 T3 Paladin with KT Loot) - down $200, although I no longer consider this a good indicator since people are posting stuff at delusional price points

Highest Price w/Bid:  $810 (14 bids, 8/9 T3 Warrior with Thunderfury - Based on the formating and e-mail contact I think this is a fraud though - see my previous post on this type of fraud).  There are a fer  bids in the $500-$700 range, but not many.

Accounts with Kel’Thuzad weapons:  1 (down 3) 

Accounts with Legendary items:  12 (sown 26)  (This number is somewhat inflated because it counts splinters of Atiesh and a lot of people have those - not too useful though unless you’re in a guild that can kill KT.) 

Gold: 

• 1000g on Tichondrius (Alliance): $228.78-$336.99 (trending up about $30)
• 1000g on Frostmane (Alliance): $228.78-$278.83 (range closed, but low price up $100)

Sources:  EZgaming, IGE, MOGs

COMMENTARY

Gold continues to remain roughly flat, with a lot of variance in prices between vendors.  Shop around.  I expect gold to fall dramatically in the next few weeks as gold is much easier to obtain in TBC.  However, since epic flying mount training costs 5000g I expect there will be a big jump in demand for large gold purchases.

Account sales are down dramatically.  If you are thinking of buying in for TBC, go for a good T1 character and forgo the T3 premium prices.  You will gear up fast in TBC and T3 will be obsolete at level 70 anyway.

Good luck in the Burning Crusade! 

 

From Time:  Confessions of a 30-Year-Old Gamer

This is a very good article about MMOGs (Massively Multi-player Online Games) and, in particular, World of Warcraft.  I think the author does a good job of explaining why it’s addictive and powerful.  I think anyone who has friends, significant others, family members, etc. that play MMOGs should read this - it might help you understand.

Less than one week to The Burning Crusade.

Accounts for sale on eBay:  918 (up 325!)

- Under the old system:  439 (up 155)

High Price:  $1,500 ( 6/9 T3 Warrior with Gressil [Kel’Thuzad sword] also has two other Naxx weapons)

Highest Price w/ Bid:  $1,500 - same account as above, it actually has 7 bids

Accounts with Kel’Thuzad weapons:  4 (up 3) Accounts with Legendary items:  38 (Up 1)  (This number is somewhat inflated because it counts splinters of Atiesh and a lot of people have those - not too useful though unless you’re in a guild that can kill KT.) 

Gold: 

• 1000g on Tichondrius (Alliance): $200.28-$285.77 (trending down about $50)
• 1000g on Frostmane (Alliance): $129.27-$371.39 (about the same)

Sources:  EZgaming, IGE, MOGs

COMMENTARY

Gold seems roughly stable.  A ton of accounts are going on sale.   It looks like a lot of people are  getting out (or cashing out before TBC).  Probably a lot of the really hard core people are just trying to get some cash and will either play alts or start new characters with the new races (Blood Elf or Dranei). 

I’m also seeing a lot of things that look like scams as I browse the accounts for sale.  Be careful. 

WARNING:  Buying World of Warcraft (WoW) accounts on eBay or via Paypal is very dangerous.  This is the first in a series of articles on how to identify these scams and how to protect yourself. 

I previously posted that eBay should have a flag option like craigslist.  This would help.  So, in the interest of explaining how messed up this stuff is, I will show the anatomy of a really bad eBay scam.  (Well really, it is more like a scammer.)   The proliferation of fraud related to virtual items is a significant problem.  It’s perpetuated by three things:

• eBay’s stance on virtual items.  Which, to the best of my understanding is:  they don’t get any protection because they aren’t real.  I find to be really silly given that eBay is one of the biggest web companies and virtual items are a big, high value market.
• Paypal shares eBay’s position on virtual items.  I guess this isn’t surprising since eBay owns them.
• The game companies (particularly Bllizzard) perpetuate fraud by not allowing secure character and gold transfers.  Look, I know some of these companies are purists, but the reality is that people are going to buy/sell these accounts.  They can let their customers (people that want to play their games enough to pay) get ripped off or they can facilitate these transfers and make money.  They are in denial about reality.

OK, so now you know why these scams exist.  Let me show you one.

On eBay right now, I can do a search on “curulet2007″ (you have to do an advanced search with the box checked for Search title and description) and get these results:

• WoW World of Warcraft 8/9 Tier 3 Warrior + Thunderfury
• 10 x Nintendo Wii Consoles - Special Lot .BRAND NEW.
• WOW World of Warcraft 7/9 Tier 3 Priest - Full Atiesh
• World of Warcraft WoW 60 Rogue 8/9 tier3 Kingsfall r14
• World of Warcraft WoW 60 Hunter 8/9 Tier 3 - 70 Epics -

Now, you’ll see that there for world of warcraft accounts there.  Each has 7/9 or 8/9 tier 3 (which is very hard to get) and one of the best possible weapons for it’s class.   It would be impossible for one person to have created all these characters.  These accounts should be going for $1000-$1500 (if they were real).  Except in this case they are all the same guy using several  different eBay accounts.  You can look at each one, he uses the following ids (in the same order as the auctions above):

• scutumboy (1)
• lisar915 (34)
• lisar915 (34)
• powerjunkie68 (52)
• powerjunkie68 (52)

Only scutumboy and powerjunkie68 have any feedback that still links to an auction.  Scutumboy actually looks vaguely real since it has (1) feedback and that feedback is selling a $500 remote controlled car set.  Powerjunkie68 bought a “fake doctor’s excuse” $9.99.

This is another important way to detect fraud.  (The first being a seller listing several items that he can’t possibly have.)  I look at feedback and click the links.  If the person has just bought a bunch of < $10 items that look useless they are probably just racheting up their feedback for the big score.  It looks like this guy probably rotates accounts at a frequency that makes it difficult to spot what he has been doing.

Virtual goods are also difficult in feedback, because in some cases the seller can “steal them back”.  In the case of World of Warcraft accounts this is thanks to Blizzard’s policy since they do not recoginize account changes the original owner can just call up, request a new password, and boom the account is their’s again.  At that point you have limited recourse.  You can’t even go give the seller negative feedback if you already gave them positive feedback.  So they can just sell it again!

BTW, the same thing pretty much happens if they give you nothing - you don’t have a lot of recourse.  Although you can leave them negative feedback in this case, since they never gave you anything.

In some cases you can do a chargeback on your credit card which forces Paypal to refund your money.  This doesn’t work if your Paypal drafts from your bank.

Anyway, back to the fraud.  In every listing he says contact curulet2007@yahoo.com before bidding.  This is usually a bad sign.  If they don’t want to be contacted through the eBay channels, that is usually a big red flag.

There is one more thing that sets off the fraud alert in the case described above.  The 10x Wiis listing.  I went and looked at that as I was looking at all his listings (when spening money on virtual goods it is important to do as much research on the seller as possible).  So when selling Wiis and PS3s it is common (it used to be required, but I’m ont sure if it still is) to show a photo with your receipts and a written note with your eBay ID - to prove they were yours.  Well, the 10x Wiis here are listed under the “lisar915″ eBay ID and the picture has the ID “alexmichalas” in it.  Woops!  Run away.   BTW, a quick search for ebay member “alexmichalas” reveals he has been selling Wiis (in Europe) and has the exact picture in all his listings… with, shock, no mention of “curulet2007″.

So, here we have one scammer spotted and identified.  Of course, I can’t tell eBay about it or flag it.  So what should I do?

1. Write this blog post.
2. Stop people from getting scammed.

So I attempted to contact kotura (331) who has a current bid of $1,425 on the 8/9 T3 Warrior (first listing).  It’s the only one with meaningful bids.  BUT, get this, I can’t contact this person because I have had a transaction with them - I might be trying to rip them off.  Oh, the irony!

So I tried to keep this buyer from getting ripped off.  It almost makes me want to start a “verified” eBay listing or something.  Or eBayFraudAlert.com.  But really, eBay should be doing this.

 

We are two weeks away from TBC, the first expansion to World of Warcraft.  It’s a big deal, largely because, well quite literally, it will change the game.

The biggest thing:  the maximum level moves from 60 to 70.  Why is this so important:

1. People have been sitting at level 60 for about two years.  This means that level hasn’t been that important as a differentiator for a long, long time.  So since everyone has been stuck at 60 they’ve differentiated across different axes:
• Equipment:  There are currently 3 tiers of equipment that are dramatically different.  Even the people with tier 1 are dramatically more “powerful” than those in “tier .5″ or “tier 0″…   And there are very few with full sets of tier 3.  But basically all this stuff will be obsolete withing a few months of the expansion release (since people will be 70 and the level 70 stuff is better than even tier 3).
• PVP:  This has been fun.  The rewards, however, are all equipment.  So all the PVP people have been doing was a fun game, but all the “output” again gets washed away.  Start over when you get to 70. 
2. People haven’t “levelled up” in a long time.  Getting a PVP rank used to be comparable, but they took that out in Decemeber and it was crazy hard (like 80 hours a week) past a certain level.  So the feeling of advancing a level will be back, at least for a month or two, which will be fun and energize people.
3. New areas — there have been a lot of patches with new areas in the two and half years of WoW, but they were almost exclusively dungeons and battlegrounds.  There will be new dungeons and battlegrounds in the expansion too.  But, more importantly, there will be a giant new land mass.  This will bring back the joy of discovery and exploration.  I think it will be a lot of fun.
4. New races — this will appeal to the hardcore folks who want to try something new.  It might also be good for new people who now have some vague advantage to entering the game now (they get to be one of the new races).

So I think there might be a resurgence of playing, but I’m not sure.  I have not been to Outland (the big new area) in TBC, although I have played the beta.  I messed around as a dranei and a blood elf (the new races) and it was pretty fun.  But I couldn’t bring myself to level up to 70 only to have it wiped when the expansion is released, so I haven’t seen the high end stuff.  I’m looking forward to checking it out.